No

Relevant qualities

Relative HCF

rating

Comments

1) 57 years old former fighter pilot who had been a commercial airline pilot since leaving the US Air Force in 1980. He is also a safety expert and a glider pilot [7]. See also Appendix B. 'I was sure I could do it'. 'The entire life up to this moment was a preparation for this moment'. 'I am not just a pilot of that flight. I am also a pilot who has flown for 43 years…'

2) Probability of human non-failure in normal flight conditions is assumed to be 100%

3) The formula would have to be used to evaluate the probability of non-failure in the case of a pilot of ordinary skills. The computed numbers are shown in parentheses.

The computed numbers show that such a pilot would definitely fail in the off-normal situation in question

1

Psychological suitability for the given task;

3.2

2

Professional qualifications and experience;

3.9

3

Level, quality and timeliness of past and recent training;

2.0

4

Mature (realistic) and independent thinking;

3.2

5

Performance sustainability (predictability, consistency)

3.2

6

Ability to concentrate and act in cold blood ('cool demeanor') in hazardous and even in life threatening situations;

3.3

7

Ability to anticipate ('expecting the unexpected');

3.2

8

Ability to operate effectively under pressure

3.4

9

Self-control in hazardous situations

3.2

10

Ability to make a substantiated decision in a short period of time ('we are going to be in the Hudson')

2.8

Average figure-of-merit (FOM)

3.14

^*)This is just an example that shows that the approach makes physical sense. Actual numbers should be obtained using FOAT on a simulator and confirmed by an independent approach, such as, say, Delphi method: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method [149]